Gold enters the new week under clear corrective pressure after a sharp sell-off at the end of last week, as the market turned more hawkish on the Fed.
🔺THE FED REMAINS THE BIGGEST HEADWIND
Recent signals from Jackson Hole have increased expectations that the Fed could maintain a restrictive stance — or even consider another hike if inflation remains elevated.
→ USD rebounds
→ Treasury yields rise
→ September hike expectations increase
→ XAUUSD comes under pressure.
🔺 GEOPOLITICAL RISK IS CREATING A MIXED SIGNAL
Renewed tensions between the US and Iran have pushed oil prices higher.
Normally, geopolitical risk supports gold.
But this time, higher oil prices also raise concerns about a renewed inflationary shock, potentially making it harder for the Fed to ease policy.
👉 War does NOT automatically mean BUY GOLD.
🔺 THE BIGGER TREND HAS NOT BEEN BROKEN
Despite the recent correction, XAUUSD remains up roughly 9% in August.
Continued demand from central banks and positive flows into gold ETFs remain important medium- to long-term supports for gold.
🔺 KEY LEVELS TO WATCH
• Resistance: 4,500 – 4,520
• Pivot: 4,450
• Support: 4,400
• Deeper Support: 4,320 – 4,350
If 4,400 holds, we could see a technical rebound.
If 4,400 breaks decisively, the correction could extend toward 4,350 → 4,320.
🔺 THE BIG CATALYST THIS WEEK
US Jobs Data will be critical for XAUUSD.
Strong Jobs → USD/Yields ↑ → Gold ↓
Weak Jobs → USD/Yields ↓ → Gold ↑
👉 Current Bias:
SHORT-TERM: BEARISH / CORRECTIVE
MEDIUM-LONG TERM: BULLISH BIAS
Don’t trade gold based on headlines alone.
Watch the chain:
Fed → USD → Yields → Inflation → Gold