1. Market Overview
Macroeconomic focus for the week of September 7–13, 2026: The market is facing dual pressures from last week’s better-than-expected Non-farm Payrolls data—which pushed expectations of a Fed rate hike to nearly 60%—and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East (where a US-Iran maritime clash drove up oil prices, stoking inflation fears). Nevertheless, strategic buying from China and demand for safe-haven assets continue to provide a solid floor near key support levels. Looking ahead, upcoming US PPI and CPI inflation data will serve as the catalyst determining the Dollar’s next trajectory.
2. Technical Analysis
• Gold prices have just undergone a sharp pullback from a peak near $4,700—dropping below the “trap” zone—and found an equilibrium point at the structural support area around the $4,300–$4,325 mark.
• Currently, the price is staging a technical rebound around the $4,410 level, approaching key Fibonacci levels (0.5 at $4,397 and 0.618 at $4,370).
• In the short term, the trend is forming an upward recovery channel, aiming to retest the intermediate resistance zone (around $4,480–$4,500) and the upper key resistance zone ($4,550–$4,575).
3. Reference Trading Scenarios
🔺Main scenario (Short-term Long on the rebound): Look to Buy when the price retests the Fibonacci 0.5–0.618 zone ($4,370–$4,395) or the structural support area.
• Take Profit (TP): Intermediate resistance zone ($4,480–$4,500), targeting the strong resistance at $4,550.
• Stop Loss (SL): Place below the nearest structural low ($4,280).
🔺Reversal scenario (Short at resistance): Observe price action as XAUUSD enters the intermediate resistance zone ($4,480–$4,500). If a price rejection signal appears (e.g., Smart Money liquidity sweep or an H4 reversal candle), consider opening a short-term Sell position targeting a liquidity sweep of the lower zone.